Is Going Wide Receiver Heavy a Good Strategy this Year?
August 22, 2022
Taking an RB with one of your first 2 picks is an approach that most fantasy enthusiasts swear by. But with that, there is always that temptation to grab 2 of the top WRs in the draft, especially if they fall to you. Let's break down the pros and cons of that approach, and how that looks if you take that leap.
Let's take a look at our 2022 rankings. In the first 2 rounds, we have a projected 10 WRs and 2 TEs to be taken. That is exactly half of the first and second round picks. Given that comparison, it is very possible to take a WR/TE combo with your first 2 picks in the draft. However, is that a wise decision? In order to decide, we must look at the rest of the draft to determine how things lay out.
First, let's talk about the upside of taking a WR with your first 2 picks. To start, you are going to have a very solid foundation to your team. Wide receivers are more likely to play all 17 games in the season and more easily able to predict target share and usage in an offense. The downside is you are left with lower tier RBs in rounds 3 onward. Fantasy football is an RB heavy game, and the top tiered athletes are taken quickly in drafts.
Second, lets discuss what wide receiver options are available in rounds 3 thru 7. In this range, we love the fantasy options available. Players like Michael Pittman, Courtland Sutton, and Mike Williams are all options that we are big on this year. The gap between these players and the top tier WRs, is not too large, making these great selections in the early to mid rounds. Though they are no Cooper Kupp or Stefon Diggs, they are very serviceable wide outs that can lead your team to victory.
Third, lets review the RBs in rounds 3 thru 6 (or more commonly referred to as the running back dead zone). These are the rounds in fantasy drafts that tend to not return value on the RBs draft position. For 2022, this would include players like Ezekiel Elliot, David Montgomery, and Josh Jacobs. Though all 3 can be reliable RBs, the argument is that there are WRs in this range that will out produce their draft value, whereas, the risk tied to these RBs makes their selection less certain.
So let's do an exercise: Let's say you are the 11th pick in this years draft. You have multiple variations of positions that you can draft when on the turn. For our first example, lets take a WR/WR approach and draft Davante Adams and Ceedee Lamb with our first 2 picks (per ADP, that is very doable). With your 3rd round pick, are you comfortable with a Travis Etienne and/or Breece Hall as your lead backs? Or, you can remain WR heavy and take Michael Pittman and Courtland Sutton to begin with 4 WR to start your draft, then wait on a Chase Edmonds and Elijah Mitchell RB combo later in the draft. Regardless how you slice and dice this, your RB options get weak quickly, whereas your WR options remain solid even in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds of the draft.
Now, for example 2, lets start our draft RB heavy and take a D'Andre Swift and Joe Mixon to start our drafts. Then in rounds 3 and 4 we can take those same 2 WRs in Michael Pittman and Courtland Sutton. Now, you have a solid foundation at both RB and WR to start your draft, and you do not feel obligated to take a particular position in earlier rounds due to the structure of your team.
Regardless of the approach above, both examples output solid teams, and that is due to the wide receiver options being stronger than in recent years. Taking a zero-RB approach is one you can entertain if you are comfortable with the later RB options, but our suggestion is to grab a solid RB early as there are plenty of wide receivers options later in the draft.
The one word of advice is to not go into any draft with a set strategy in place. Let the draft come to you, and take the best players available.